Fault Lines

The Three Cracks in the Global Labor Market

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Massive disruption is underway, and none of the old rules apply.

A fault line is a crack where pressure is building, creating the conditions for cataclysmic change. We’re seeing fault lines in the global labor market.

Geopolitical relationships are rupturing. AI is overturning everything we thought we knew about work. Labor shortages are raising the stakes for every workforce decision.

Lightcast has studied the global labor market for over 25 years, but the challenges ahead are unlike any we’ve seen before. By organizing and understanding the world’s labor data, we want to provide trusted, useful guidance even when the ground is shaking under your feet.

Featuring New Research from Our Experts

Elizabeth Crofoot

Principal Economist

Lightcast

Ron Hetrick

Principal Economist

Lightcast

Elena Magrini

Head of Global Research

Lightcast

Cole Napper

Vice President, Research, Innovation, and Talent Insights
6%Only 6% of AI workers' degrees are AI-related. If the connection between degrees and careers has been scrambled, how can educators prepare their learners?
20%The regions that rely most on immigration will see inflows drop 20% over the next 20 years. Origin countries have fewer people to send out, and destination countries are restricting their intake.
66%Worldwide, 66% of job postings require a degree, even though only 31% of workers have one. Richer countries have the opposite problem: higher demand for workers without a degree than with one.

CHAPTER 1

Geopolitics

The Displacement of Talent

We're used to an interconnected world, optimized for efficiency.

Instead, we're going to see competition, restriction, and reshuffling as countries de-risk their geopolitical exposure.

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Every Challenge Makes the Others Harder.

Tensions and confusion about geopolitics, AI, and labor shortages are compounding, not just coinciding.

When the sectors most in need of workers are the ones using AI least, it makes labor shortages worse, instead of automating them away. When one country can draw AI workers away from others (as the US has done) it creates a geopolitical advantage. Immigration restrictions are geopolitical policy choices—that create additional labor shortages.

We have no precedent for the convergence of these patterns. As geopolitical disruption, AI transformation, and labor shortages intersect and fracture the existing landscape, they are creating challenges no single generation has ever faced. The future will be different than the present and past. And yet most organizations do business like it’s the 20th century, using past performance as a predictor of future results.

With comprehensive labor market intelligence—organizational, skills, and workforce data—businesses, educators, and the public sector can anticipate change proactively and be ready when it comes

Fault Lines. Your Way.

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